A Huge Week for the Market, France’s Elections Just the Appetizer

Sunday’s French presidential elections are clearly what’s going to set the tone for the market this coming week, but volatility on markets this coming week could very well be forthcoming from Washington, hinging on anything from tax and health care reform to the ongoing credit ceiling wrangling which could very well shut down Capitol Hill come the end of the month. If that’s not enough, 190 firms on the S&P 500 are expected to report this week, a true – yet atypical onslaught -for but one trading week!

Headlines that the Trump administration is planning to announce a new tax policy this coming week led stocks to jump to some degree in the second half of the trading day on Friday, though all-in-all, it was yet another day in which the market failed to create lasting momentum. Things were looking good for the market on Thursday – and there was no bad news overnight – but buyers’ interest in chasing prices higher was low and didn’t pass muster.

Despite the fact that the main indexes fell on Friday, the losses were limited. Thursday’s momentum evaporated. That could partially be explained by the French presidential elections, concerns about the credit ceiling – or even North Korea – but the lack of momentum has been in the limelight in the current market for at least 7 weeks, and Friday was another example of such.

Of late, neither the bulls nor the bears were able to produce a winning streak. One day, the bulls have the upper hand – and then, already come the next day, the edge falls by the wayside, bears clawing back and dragging prices down. Computerized algorithms apparently strengthen this tendency, i.e. buying the dips and selling the rallies before they can burgeon into anything bigger.

The bulls will claim that support’s continuing to hold its ground, conditions on the ball for an inflow of good news that will lead to a market breakout. The bears, on the flipside, will claim that the uptrend has already been under pressure for almost 2 months and that the promise of good news is nothing but an illusion.

In terms of the overall picture, it’s easier to buy into the bearish camp when taking into account factors like the Fed, the economy, stock valuations, and a lack of progress on the fiscal front and so on – though the bears’ problem until now has always been price movement, and to their dismay, it’s been holding its own!

From a trading perspective, it doesn’t really matter in which direction the market heads; traders are just waiting for the next market shock, the drama’s next episode, and for volatility to pick it up a notch!

This coming week, the earnings season will be going into full gear, with hundreds of companies reporting from a wide range of sectors, from Google (GOOGL) to Exxon-Mobil (XOM), and Caterpillar (CAT), and Bristol-Myers (BMY).

Besides politics and earnings reports, there are a number of key macro figures that will be released this week, including Friday’s Q1 GDP reading, and Thursday’s durable goods orders report.

IndexLastDaily changeR2R1PPS1S2

In Summary for the Week: Stock indexes ended up, the Dow Jones rising 0.43%, the S&P 500 seeing gains of 0.89% and the NASDAQ tacking on 1.66%.

 Have a great trading week!


Economic Calendar


DAYTIME (EST)EventForecastImpact
Tuesday9:00Case-Shiller Home Price IndexMedium
Tuesday9:00FHFA Housing Price IndexMedium
Tuesday10:00New Home SalesMedium
Tuesday10:00Consumer ConfidenceMedium
Wednesday10:30Crude InventoriesLow
Thursday8:30Initial ClaimsHigh
Thursday8:30Durable OrdersMedium
Thursday8:30Initial ClaimsHigh
Thursday10:00Pending Home SalesMedium
Friday9:45Chicago PMIMedium
Friday10:00Michigan Sentiment – FinalHigh


Earning Calendar


CATCaterpillar Inc.AMTuesday
DDE. I. du Pont de Nemours and CompanyAMTuesday
KOThe Coca-Cola CompanyAMTuesday
LLYEli Lilly and CompanyAMTuesday
MCDMcDonald’s CorporationAMTuesday
MMM3M CompanyAMTuesday
VLOValero Energy CorporationAMTuesday
XUnited States Steel CorporationPMTuesday
JNPRJuniper Networks, Inc.PMTuesday
COFCapital One Financial CorporationPMTuesday
ARNCArconic Inc.PMTuesday
BAThe Boeing CompanyAMWednesday
HSYThe Hershey CompanyAMWednesday
PEPPepsico, Inc.AMWednesday
FFIVF5 Networks, Inc.PMWednesday
AMGNAmgen Inc.PMWednesday
CELGCelgene CorporationAMThursday
JCIJohnson Controls International plcAMThursday
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.AMThursday
UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.AMThursday
SBUXStarbucks CorporationPMThursday
MSFTMicrosoft CorporationPMThursday
GOOGLGoogle Class APMThursday
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.PMThursday
CLColgate-Palmolive CompanyAMFriday
CVXChevron CorporationAMFriday
PSXPhillips 66AMFriday
XOMExxon Mobil CorporationAMFriday


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