October Game Plan!

Yesterday was the last day of Q3 and just a week away from the kickoff of the up and coming earnings season. It’s easy to parse out a number of dynamics presently playing out. Despite September historically thought of as the weakest month of the year, October is the most volatile – a month of implosions on the one hand, but on the other, one also known for its ability to kill bear markets!

The historical tendency towards weakness in September didn’t play out this year but hopes are high among traders that volatility will finally pick up in October. Unfortunately for the bears, a rise in volatility as far as 2017 goes would seem to favor an uptick in the market rather than it losing ground.

The most important thing for us to internalize from the month of September is that it’s important to stay open-minded, rather than rigid and unbending. For the dogmatic bears it was particularly difficult seeing that they continue to believe that warning signs from the past are still valid in our current market environment.

There’s no doubt that the dynamics in the market have changed significantly over the last few years and that what’s driving the market now is entirely different than the forces doing so in the past. Bad news a plenty reared its head in September, though the market ignored each and every new curveball: the Fed tightening its stance, hurricanes which sowed utter disaster, scandals galore from the West Wing and a tax plan unanimously perceived as deemed to failure from the moment it was announced in its current iteration.

The big lesson the market recently inculcated in us is that it’s a mistake to be unwilling to budge in your take on the market! You need to be ready to adapt and change when the conditions change and in most situations, these conditions are caused by price movement and not by the news!

I, like everyone else on the market, have no idea what’s going to happen in October. The bears will continue to expect the market to peak before taking a turn for the worse – and they’ll give us seemingly endless reasons why that’s what’s going to happen. The bulls will demonstratively ignore their every claim, while staying focused on the positive price movement. It would be inane to forecast what’s going to happen when push comes to shove. The best tack now is to keep an open mind. Be vigilant and understand what’s causing price movement and react the moment conditions change. If you do that effectively, you’ll succeed in routing the market!

Index Last Daily change
DJX 22,381 0.18% Up
SPX 2,510 0.12% Up
Nasdaq 6,453 0.00% Up

Friday’s Hot Stocks: TSN, LB, ATEN

IPOs: PQG

Economic Calendar

 

DAY TIME (EST) Event Forecast Impact
Tuesday 9:00 S&P Case-Shiller  0.4 % Medium
Tuesday 10:00 New Home Sales 583 K

 

Medium
Tuesday 10:00 Consumer Confidence 120.2 High
Tuesday 11:50 Janet Yellen Speaks “Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals” Medium
Wednesday 8:30 Durable Goods Orders 1.5 % Low
Wednesday 10:00 Pending Home Sales Index -0.1 % Medium
Wednesday 10:30 Oil Inventories Low
Thursday 8:30 GDP 3.1 % Medium
Thursday 8:30 Jobless Claims 270 K Medium
Friday 8:30 Personal Income and Outlays 0.3 % Medium
Friday 9:45 Chicago PMI 58.6  Medium
Friday 10:00 Consumer Sentiment 95.3  High

 

 

 

Earning Calendar

 

Symbol Company AM/PM Day
CCL Carnival Corporation AM Monday
THO Thor Industries, Inc. PM Monday
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. AM Tuesday
MU Micron Technology, Inc. PM Tuesday
NKE NIKE, Inc. PM Tuesday
WOR Worthington Industries, Inc. AM Wednesday
ALR Alere Inc. AM Wednesday
CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. AM Thursday
MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated AM Thursday
CMC Commercial Metals Company AM Thursday
AKRX Akorn, Inc. AM Thursday
ACN Accenture plc AM Thursday
 

 

Today’s Picks – Day Trading!

Symbol Breakout Breakdown Momentum Momentum
HTZ 24.22 ROKU DXCM
TSCO 63.38 SPPI  
DVAX 21.85 HMNY  
SRPT 48 MDGL  
PETS 31.92 BLUE  

 

 

New York Strategy Swing

# Date Stock Long\

Short

Statues Data Close Profit\

Loss

1 2.8.2017 AKAM Short Close 3.8.2017 -1.12%
2 3.8.2017 NKE Long Close 8.8.2017 +0.02%
3 4.8.2017 SBUX Short Close 16.8.2017 +2.40%
4 8.8.2017 NTAP Long Close 9.8.2017 -1.17%
5 22.8.2017 ATHM Long Close 23.8.2017 +0.16%
6 23.8.2017 AAP Short Close 26.8.2017 +0.98%
7 28.8.2017 CREE Short Close 30.8.2017 -0.86%
8 30.8.2017 TRIP Long Close 11.9.2017 +3.88%
9 1.9.2017 VNTV Long Close 14.9.2017 +1.35%
10 12.9.2017 CPB Short Close 15.9.2017 -1.10%
11 18.9.2017 INSM Long Close 22.9.2017 +1.92%
12 25.9.2017 GPS Long Open   +2.54%
13 27.9.2017 SQM Long Open +2.00%