Who’s Afraid of Friday the 13th?

S2 S1 PP R1 R2 Daily change Last Index
          (-0.32%) 19,891 DJX
224.29 225.41 226.08 227.20 227.87 (-0.21%) 2,270 SPX
121.17 121.95 122.39 123.17 123.61 (-0.29%) 5,547 Nasdaq

The 3 large Wall Street indexes ended off on Thursday as investors awaited Q4 earnings reports and further details about the economic plan of president-elect Donald Trump, just 8 days before his inauguration. In summary for the day, the S&P 500 fell 0.21% after having fallen earlier in the day as much as 0.9%. The NASDAQ index shed 0.29%.

Despite the fact that stocks succeeded in recovering from some of their losses the more the day advanced, all-in-all, of the 11 sectors on the S&P 500, only 4 managed to end in the green, the financial sector (XLF) leading the losses, a day before the release of key firm earnings reports. The S&P 500 has risen 6.4% since Election Day, November 8th.

On Wednesday, Trump foiled investors’ hopes to receive new detail about his policy platform, choosing instead to use his first press party since Election Day to lash out at intelligence agencies and media companies in what he referenced as “fake news” from Russia – while also reiterating his promise to reform U.S. health coverage.

The fact that the market is still trading close to the latest high means that everyone is still optimistic. Likewise, the American population is still confident and ready to open up their wallets as they make more money given the latest wage growth meaning more disposable income; in brief, good news.

The health sector (XLV) ended slightly off by 0.07%, after having fallen 1% on the previous trading day after Donald Trump didn’t mince any words, proclaiming that drug companies are “getting away with murder,” hurting Americans at the government’s expense. The index recovered yesterday, MRK up 0.9%, and LLY rising 2.5% after the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said that it would not allow the Israeli drug company, TEVA, to sell its generic version of Eli Lilly’s blockbuster vitamin regimen cancer treatment, Alimta. TEVA fell by another 1%, falling 6.5% year-to-date, and 44.5% in the last year.

On the S&P 500, 10 stocks rose to new 52-week highs, 4 dipping to new yearly lows; on the NASDAQ, 60 stocks recorded new 52-week highs, 21 falling to new yearly lows.

About 6.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, pretty much on par with the 6.5 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

Friday: The kickoff of the earnings season is likely to test the stability of the Trump rally, at least in the short-run. Financial stocks, which led the market gains over the last 2-months, get things started today with a wave of earnings numbers, the large banks releasing their Q4 results. Before opening, we’ll get the numbers of JPM, BAC and WFC, followed up by the largest hedge fund in the world, BLK. The financial sector has rallied 17% since the elections on the background of both Trump’s campaign promise to take away regulations weighing on the financial sector, and the U.S. rate hike. At present, earnings reports – and especially – bank forecasts will need to justify the latest surge in the industry.

Additional important figures will be released on December retail sales, which are expected to show a solid rise of 0.7%; the number, expected for 8:30 N.Y. time, is likely to affect trading in retail stocks. The big story is retail sales and the extent to which the figure is in lock-step with consumption patterns. We believe that the reading for the figure is likely to come out better than the consensus, something likely to have a negative effect on U.S. T-bonds today, and support stocks. Likewise, if the number is strong, that’s something likely to point to a stronger Q4 GDP reading.

And lastly, for those who believe in superstitions (not us, of course), today is Friday the 13th! According to market statistics, on this date, the S&P 500 closes up 57% of the time. At the same time, on the last 3 times that the 13th of the month came out on a Friday, the S&P 500 fell each and every time – with average losses of 0.8%. It seems, irrespective of that, that the S&P 500 has sharp movement ahead! It’s been 64 days already without losses of 1% or more on the S&P 500. The previous such streak was in summer ’14, numbering 66 days.

Friday’s Hot Stocks: P, JPM, WFC, BLK, PNC

IPOs: None

Have a great trading day!

Economic Calendar
DAY TIME (EST) Event Forecast Impact
Tuesday 10:00 JOLTS – Job Openings Medium
Tuesday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories 0.9% Medium
Wednesday 10:30 Crude Inventories Low
Thursday 8:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Medium
Thursday 8:30 Import Prices ex-oil Medium
Thursday 8:30 Initial Claims 255K High
Friday 8:30 PPI 56.6 High
Friday 8:30 Retail Sales 0.7% Medium
Friday 10:00 Business Inventories 0.6% Medium
Friday 10:00 Mich Sentiment 98.5 High

 

Earnings Calendar
Symbol Company AM/PM Day
CMC Commercial Metals Company AM Monday
GPN Global Payments Inc. AM Monday
LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. AM Tuesday
AA Alcoa Corporation AM Tuesday
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited AM Thursday
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. AM Thursday
PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. AM Friday
BLK BlackRock, Inc. AM Friday
BAC Bank of America Corporation AM Friday
WFC Wells Fargo & Company AM Friday
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. AM Friday
INFY Infosys Limited AM Friday

AM – Before Market Open

PM – After Market Close

13.1.2017

Today’s Picks – Day Trading

Symbol Breakout Breakdown Momentum Momentum
MCHP 66.81   CLVS AKS
MA 109   ACAD X
ADP 104   SGEN CRUS
      TIF PNC
      DISCA URRE
      LLY CINF
      MBT  
      MYCC  
      APOP  

New York Strategy Swing

# Date Stock Long\

Short

Statues Date Close Profit \ Loss # Date Stock Long \Short Statues Date Close Profit \ Loss
1 5.12.2016 CSC Long Close 6.12.2016 -1.62% 17            
2 6.12.2016 YY Short Close 7.12.2016 +0.72% 18            
3 7.12.2016 ROST Long Close 14.12.2016 +0.42% 19            
4 9.12.016 TWLO Short Close 13.12.2016 +2.01% 20            
5 12.12.2016 PDCO Long Close 14.12.2016 +0.48% 21            
6 13.12.2016 TLRD Long Open 22.12.2016 +1.87% 22            
7 13.12.2016 IGT Short Close 14.12.2016 -0.19% 23            
8 14.12.2016 CC Long Close 21.12.2016 +0.52% 24            
9 29.12.2016 JWN Short Close 6.1.2017 +3.45% 25            
10 6.1.2017 TRGP Long Close 9.1.2017 +0.20% 26            
11 9.1.2017 NVDA Long Open   +1.02% 27            
12 10.1.2017 TLRD Long Close 10.1.2017 -3.27% 28            
13             29            
14             30            
15             31            
16             32          

Today’s Picks – Swing “New-York Strategy

No.1 – LW

Company Name Lamb Weston Holdings
Entry Point 37.20
Stop Area 35.90
1st Target 37.80
Swing Target 39
Avg. Volume 2.30M
Sector Consumer Goods | Food – Major Diversified
Earnings Date
Risk Rate Normal
Risk\Reward Ratio 1.38:1

No.2

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