Who’s Afraid of Friday the 13th?
The 3 large Wall Street indexes ended off on Thursday as investors awaited Q4 earnings reports and further details about the economic plan of president-elect Donald Trump, just 8 days before his inauguration. In summary for the day, the S&P 500 fell 0.21% after having fallen earlier in the day as much as 0.9%. The NASDAQ index shed 0.29%.
Despite the fact that stocks succeeded in recovering from some of their losses the more the day advanced, all-in-all, of the 11 sectors on the S&P 500, only 4 managed to end in the green, the financial sector (XLF) leading the losses, a day before the release of key firm earnings reports. The S&P 500 has risen 6.4% since Election Day, November 8th.
On Wednesday, Trump foiled investors’ hopes to receive new detail about his policy platform, choosing instead to use his first press party since Election Day to lash out at intelligence agencies and media companies in what he referenced as “fake news” from Russia – while also reiterating his promise to reform U.S. health coverage.
The fact that the market is still trading close to the latest high means that everyone is still optimistic. Likewise, the American population is still confident and ready to open up their wallets as they make more money given the latest wage growth meaning more disposable income; in brief, good news.
The health sector (XLV) ended slightly off by 0.07%, after having fallen 1% on the previous trading day after Donald Trump didn’t mince any words, proclaiming that drug companies are “getting away with murder,” hurting Americans at the government’s expense. The index recovered yesterday, MRK up 0.9%, and LLY rising 2.5% after the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said that it would not allow the Israeli drug company, TEVA, to sell its generic version of Eli Lilly’s blockbuster vitamin regimen cancer treatment, Alimta. TEVA fell by another 1%, falling 6.5% year-to-date, and 44.5% in the last year.
On the S&P 500, 10 stocks rose to new 52-week highs, 4 dipping to new yearly lows; on the NASDAQ, 60 stocks recorded new 52-week highs, 21 falling to new yearly lows.
About 6.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, pretty much on par with the 6.5 billion average over the last 20 trading days.
Friday: The kickoff of the earnings season is likely to test the stability of the Trump rally, at least in the short-run. Financial stocks, which led the market gains over the last 2-months, get things started today with a wave of earnings numbers, the large banks releasing their Q4 results. Before opening, we’ll get the numbers of JPM, BAC and WFC, followed up by the largest hedge fund in the world, BLK. The financial sector has rallied 17% since the elections on the background of both Trump’s campaign promise to take away regulations weighing on the financial sector, and the U.S. rate hike. At present, earnings reports – and especially – bank forecasts will need to justify the latest surge in the industry.
Additional important figures will be released on December retail sales, which are expected to show a solid rise of 0.7%; the number, expected for 8:30 N.Y. time, is likely to affect trading in retail stocks. The big story is retail sales and the extent to which the figure is in lock-step with consumption patterns. We believe that the reading for the figure is likely to come out better than the consensus, something likely to have a negative effect on U.S. T-bonds today, and support stocks. Likewise, if the number is strong, that’s something likely to point to a stronger Q4 GDP reading.
And lastly, for those who believe in superstitions (not us, of course), today is Friday the 13th! According to market statistics, on this date, the S&P 500 closes up 57% of the time. At the same time, on the last 3 times that the 13th of the month came out on a Friday, the S&P 500 fell each and every time – with average losses of 0.8%. It seems, irrespective of that, that the S&P 500 has sharp movement ahead! It’s been 64 days already without losses of 1% or more on the S&P 500. The previous such streak was in summer ’14, numbering 66 days.
Friday’s Hot Stocks: P, JPM, WFC, BLK, PNC
Have a great trading day!
|Tuesday||10:00||JOLTS – Job Openings||–||Medium|
|Thursday||8:30||Export Prices ex-ag.||–||Medium|
|Thursday||8:30||Import Prices ex-oil||–||Medium|
|CMC||Commercial Metals Company||AM||Monday|
|GPN||Global Payments Inc.||AM||Monday|
|LW||Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.||AM||Tuesday|
|TSM||Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited||AM||Thursday|
|DAL||Delta Air Lines, Inc.||AM||Thursday|
|PNC||The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.||AM||Friday|
|BAC||Bank of America Corporation||AM||Friday|
|WFC||Wells Fargo & Company||AM||Friday|
|JPM||JPMorgan Chase & Co.||AM||Friday|
AM – Before Market Open
PM – After Market Close
Today’s Picks – Day Trading
New York Strategy Swing
|Statues||Date Close||Profit \ Loss||#||Date||Stock||Long \Short||Statues||Date Close||Profit \ Loss|
Today’s Picks – Swing “New-York Strategy
No.1 – LW
|Company Name||Lamb Weston Holdings|
|Sector||Consumer Goods | Food – Major Diversified|