The NASDAQ’s Strongest Quarter since 2012!

 

Wall Street closed Q1 2017 this past Friday with very strong yields for the 3 major indexes, the S&P 500 ending the first 3 months of the trading year up 5.5%, the Dow Jones rising 4.6% and the stellar performance on the NASDAQ taking the jackpot with gains of 9.8% on the quarter.

The fact that the market is holding its own at these levels despite all the political wrangling on Capitol Hill is both surprising and amazing, accentuating the optimism being vested in the future of the American economy. The question is “Can this go on?!” Stocks rallied in Q1 2017 primarily because of projections that the new Trump administration could push forward its tax reforms, which significantly winding down regulation and implementing a huge program for revamping the country’s infrastructure, all of these initiatives thought in their own right to be business and growth friendly.

At the same time, after the Oval Office’s new occupant got off to a rocky start, he will need to back off from some of the programs he’d been pushing now that he suffered his first rout, unable 2 weeks ago to mobilize sufficient congressional support to push through an Obamacare replacement. The Q1 rally tapered in March, the S&P 500 closing the month flat, while the Dow Jones shed 0.72% and the NASDAQ rallied 1.48%.

Investors will have to, whether they like it or not, weigh in on the high price valuations in the stock market that have now hit a PE of 22 for the S&P 500, significantly higher than the historic average of 15. Momentum and sentiment are likely to be significant short-term movement drivers, but in the long term, valuations do matter.

The month of March signified the 8th straight year and counting of the bull rally which began back in March ’09. The long-term uptrend is not in jeopardy as of now. There are three things that we’ll assess to get an indication as to when the bull market will be over: a rise in the number of price corrections in the market, a major rise in interest rates and growing credit market pricing discrepancies. None of these currently raise a red – nor presumably, not even a yellow flag!

To spice things up, the employment report, which is usually thought of as the most important economic figure of the month, will this time around be seen as just another economic figure. In its stead, a chock load of activity that will be taking place in Congress before the spring recess and the Donald’s first formal meeting with China’s president, Xi Jinping, will dominate the roster of items professional traders will have their eyes trained on. Other figures this week will include the Fed minutes from its latest meeting and car sales numbers.

Employment numbers are always in focus, though, with that said, in the event Friday’s numbers come out weak compared to the latest trend, that very weakness can be blamed on the inclement weather, meaning that players won’t pay the numbers any heed whatsoever, especially now, with the Fed not expected to hike rates again until June.

March’s employment figures are expected to point to 180 thousand new positions in the U.S. job market, significantly beneath the readings of almost 235 thousand seen in January and February. The unemployment rate is expected to stay put at 4.7%, hourly wages expected to climb by 0.3%.

And now, back to Washington politics! The decision on funding the government will be Congress’s next big test, after the Republican majority failed last week to cancel and replace Obamacare. Congress now has to reach a consensus on a funding package for the government to avoid a shutdown come April 28th. That’s the reason that the chords struck in Washington will be more important than the economic figures being released.

Trump and the Chinese president’s anticipated meeting this week will give the first real insight into the government’s trade deals with the Chinese government, a topic that has unsettled many but which is yet to find its way into the market. It will be important for the market to see what comes out of the discussions between China and the U.S. – and whether Trump is open-minded when he comes to the bargaining table. In the event that the discussions kick off with Trump talking about a 30%-40% import tariff on all goods reaching the U.S, that means that his mind is already made up.

Another important figure will be automobile sales which will be released on Monday. Investors want to see whether the figure can keep its head over an annualized clip of 17 million, especially after Friday’s disappointing Consumer Confidence Index showed a rise of just 0.1% in February. The consensus now comes to annualized sales of 17.4 million units for March.

IndexLastDaily changeR2R1PPS1S2
DJX20,663(-0.31%)Down     
SPX2,363(-0.23%)Down236.81236.27235.98235.44235.15
Nasdaq5,912(-0.04%)Down133.03132.70132.42132.09131.81

In Summary for the Week: Stock indexes ended up. The Dow Jones climbed 0.29%. The S&P 500 recorded gains of 0.8%, the NASDAQ tacking on 1.34%.

Have a great trading week!

Economic Calendar

 

DAYTIME (EST)EventForecastImpact
Monday10:00ISM Index57.0High
Monday10:00Construction Spending1.0%בינונית
Monday14:00Auto Sales0.2%נמוכה
Tuesday10:00Factory Orders0.9%Medium
Wednesday8:15ADP Employment Change175KHigh
Wednesday10:00ISM Services57.0Medium
Wednesday10:30Crude InventoriesLow
Wednesday14:00FOMC MinutesHigh
Thursday8:30Initial Claims245KHigh
Friday8:30Nonfarm Payrolls180KHigh
Friday8:30Unemployment Rate4.7%High
Friday10:00Wholesale Inventories0.4%Medium

 

 

Earning Calendar

 

SymbolCompanyAM/PMDay
MONMonsanto CompanyAMWednesday
WBAWalgreens Boots Alliance, Inc.AMWednesday
YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.PMWednesday
BBBYBed Bath & Beyond Inc.PMWednesday
KMXCarMax Inc.AMThursday
STZConstellation Brands, Inc.AMThursday
PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.PMThursday
ALRAlere Inc.AMFriday

  

3.4.2017

Today’s Picks – Day Trading!

SymbolBreakoutBreakdownMomentumMomentum
CBOE$81.36 LLBOFI
FTV$60.41 WSMACOR
ABBV $65.00RHCSC
FRED $12.97 PLSE
USG $31.57  
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

 

 

New York Strategy Swing

#DateStockLong\

Short

StatuesData CloseProfit\

Loss

16.3.2017LBTYKLongClose14.3.2017+2.47%
28.3.2017FTNTLongClose9.3.2017+0.37%
313.3.2017ARNCLongClose21.3.2017+1.92%
414.3.2017MOMOLongClose20.3.2017+5.50%
515.3.2017PTLALongClose17.3.2017+0.65%
617.3.2017NTNXLongClose21.3.2017-4.23%
722.3.2017FNSRShortClose25.3.2017-2.78%
827.3.2017AKAOLongClose31.3.2017+11.31%
930.3.2017AFSIShortOpen -0.32%
10      
11      
12      
13      
14      
15      
16      
17      
18      

 


 

Today’s Picks – Swing “New-York Strategy”

Company NameArconic
Entry Point26.58
Stop Area25.95
1st Target27.30
Swing Target30.69
Avg. Volume5.09M
SectorBasic Materials | Aluminum
Earning Date
Risk RateNormal
Risk\Reward Ratio6.52:1
Company Name
GameStop
Entry Point22.37
Stop Area22.80
1st Target21.80
Swing Target20.24
Avg. Volume3.02M
SectorServices | Electronics Stores
Earning Date
Risk RateNormal
Risk\Reward Ratio4.95:1

 No.1 –  ARNC

Company NameArconic
Entry Point26.58
Stop Area25.95
1st Target27.30
Swing Target30.69
Avg. Volume5.09M
SectorBasic Materials | Aluminum
Earning Date
Risk RateNormal
Risk\Reward Ratio6.52:1

 

No.2 – GME

Company Name
GameStop
Entry Point22.37
Stop Area22.80
1st Target21.80
Swing Target20.24
Avg. Volume3.02M
SectorServices | Electronics Stores
Earning Date
Risk RateNormal
Risk\Reward Ratio4.95:1