The NASDAQ’s Strongest Quarter since 2012!

 

Wall Street closed Q1 2017 this past Friday with very strong yields for the 3 major indexes, the S&P 500 ending the first 3 months of the trading year up 5.5%, the Dow Jones rising 4.6% and the stellar performance on the NASDAQ taking the jackpot with gains of 9.8% on the quarter.

The fact that the market is holding its own at these levels despite all the political wrangling on Capitol Hill is both surprising and amazing, accentuating the optimism being vested in the future of the American economy. The question is “Can this go on?!” Stocks rallied in Q1 2017 primarily because of projections that the new Trump administration could push forward its tax reforms, which significantly winding down regulation and implementing a huge program for revamping the country’s infrastructure, all of these initiatives thought in their own right to be business and growth friendly.

At the same time, after the Oval Office’s new occupant got off to a rocky start, he will need to back off from some of the programs he’d been pushing now that he suffered his first rout, unable 2 weeks ago to mobilize sufficient congressional support to push through an Obamacare replacement. The Q1 rally tapered in March, the S&P 500 closing the month flat, while the Dow Jones shed 0.72% and the NASDAQ rallied 1.48%.

Investors will have to, whether they like it or not, weigh in on the high price valuations in the stock market that have now hit a PE of 22 for the S&P 500, significantly higher than the historic average of 15. Momentum and sentiment are likely to be significant short-term movement drivers, but in the long term, valuations do matter.

The month of March signified the 8th straight year and counting of the bull rally which began back in March ’09. The long-term uptrend is not in jeopardy as of now. There are three things that we’ll assess to get an indication as to when the bull market will be over: a rise in the number of price corrections in the market, a major rise in interest rates and growing credit market pricing discrepancies. None of these currently raise a red – nor presumably, not even a yellow flag!

To spice things up, the employment report, which is usually thought of as the most important economic figure of the month, will this time around be seen as just another economic figure. In its stead, a chock load of activity that will be taking place in Congress before the spring recess and the Donald’s first formal meeting with China’s president, Xi Jinping, will dominate the roster of items professional traders will have their eyes trained on. Other figures this week will include the Fed minutes from its latest meeting and car sales numbers.

Employment numbers are always in focus, though, with that said, in the event Friday’s numbers come out weak compared to the latest trend, that very weakness can be blamed on the inclement weather, meaning that players won’t pay the numbers any heed whatsoever, especially now, with the Fed not expected to hike rates again until June.

March’s employment figures are expected to point to 180 thousand new positions in the U.S. job market, significantly beneath the readings of almost 235 thousand seen in January and February. The unemployment rate is expected to stay put at 4.7%, hourly wages expected to climb by 0.3%.

And now, back to Washington politics! The decision on funding the government will be Congress’s next big test, after the Republican majority failed last week to cancel and replace Obamacare. Congress now has to reach a consensus on a funding package for the government to avoid a shutdown come April 28th. That’s the reason that the chords struck in Washington will be more important than the economic figures being released.

Trump and the Chinese president’s anticipated meeting this week will give the first real insight into the government’s trade deals with the Chinese government, a topic that has unsettled many but which is yet to find its way into the market. It will be important for the market to see what comes out of the discussions between China and the U.S. – and whether Trump is open-minded when he comes to the bargaining table. In the event that the discussions kick off with Trump talking about a 30%-40% import tariff on all goods reaching the U.S, that means that his mind is already made up.

Another important figure will be automobile sales which will be released on Monday. Investors want to see whether the figure can keep its head over an annualized clip of 17 million, especially after Friday’s disappointing Consumer Confidence Index showed a rise of just 0.1% in February. The consensus now comes to annualized sales of 17.4 million units for March.

Index Last Daily change R2 R1 PP S1 S2
DJX 20,663 (-0.31%) Down          
SPX 2,363 (-0.23%) Down 236.81 236.27 235.98 235.44 235.15
Nasdaq 5,912 (-0.04%) Down 133.03 132.70 132.42 132.09 131.81

In Summary for the Week: Stock indexes ended up. The Dow Jones climbed 0.29%. The S&P 500 recorded gains of 0.8%, the NASDAQ tacking on 1.34%.

Have a great trading week!

Economic Calendar

 

DAY TIME (EST) Event Forecast Impact
Monday 10:00 ISM Index 57.0 High
Monday 10:00 Construction Spending 1.0% בינונית
Monday 14:00 Auto Sales 0.2% נמוכה
Tuesday 10:00 Factory Orders 0.9% Medium
Wednesday 8:15 ADP Employment Change 175K High
Wednesday 10:00 ISM Services 57.0 Medium
Wednesday 10:30 Crude Inventories Low
Wednesday 14:00 FOMC Minutes High
Thursday 8:30 Initial Claims 245K High
Friday 8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls 180K High
Friday 8:30 Unemployment Rate 4.7% High
Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories 0.4% Medium

 

 

Earning Calendar

 

Symbol Company AM/PM Day
MON Monsanto Company AM Wednesday
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. AM Wednesday
YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. PM Wednesday
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. PM Wednesday
KMX CarMax Inc. AM Thursday
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. AM Thursday
PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. PM Thursday
ALR Alere Inc. AM Friday

  

3.4.2017

Today’s Picks – Day Trading!

Symbol Breakout Breakdown Momentum Momentum
CBOE $81.36   LL BOFI
FTV $60.41   WSM ACOR
ABBV   $65.00 RH CSC
FRED   $12.97   PLSE
USG   $31.57    
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         

 

 

New York Strategy Swing

# Date Stock Long\

Short

Statues Data Close Profit\

Loss

1 6.3.2017 LBTYK Long Close 14.3.2017 +2.47%
2 8.3.2017 FTNT Long Close 9.3.2017 +0.37%
3 13.3.2017 ARNC Long Close 21.3.2017 +1.92%
4 14.3.2017 MOMO Long Close 20.3.2017 +5.50%
5 15.3.2017 PTLA Long Close 17.3.2017 +0.65%
6 17.3.2017 NTNX Long Close 21.3.2017 -4.23%
7 22.3.2017 FNSR Short Close 25.3.2017 -2.78%
8 27.3.2017 AKAO Long Close 31.3.2017 +11.31%
9 30.3.2017 AFSI Short Open   -0.32%
10            
11            
12            
13            
14            
15            
16            
17            
18            

 


 

Today’s Picks – Swing “New-York Strategy”

Company Name Arconic
Entry Point 26.58
Stop Area 25.95
1st Target 27.30
Swing Target 30.69
Avg. Volume 5.09M
Sector Basic Materials | Aluminum
Earning Date
Risk Rate Normal
Risk\Reward Ratio 6.52:1
Company Name
GameStop
Entry Point 22.37
Stop Area 22.80
1st Target 21.80
Swing Target 20.24
Avg. Volume 3.02M
Sector Services | Electronics Stores
Earning Date
Risk Rate Normal
Risk\Reward Ratio 4.95:1

 No.1 –  ARNC

Company Name Arconic
Entry Point 26.58
Stop Area 25.95
1st Target 27.30
Swing Target 30.69
Avg. Volume 5.09M
Sector Basic Materials | Aluminum
Earning Date
Risk Rate Normal
Risk\Reward Ratio 6.52:1

 

No.2 – GME

Company Name
GameStop
Entry Point 22.37
Stop Area 22.80
1st Target 21.80
Swing Target 20.24
Avg. Volume 3.02M
Sector Services | Electronics Stores
Earning Date
Risk Rate Normal
Risk\Reward Ratio 4.95:1