March 12, 2018.

After a week of unstable movement on the heels of Trump’s aluminum and steel import tariff announcement, the market has taken a breath of fresh air before its next move. Import tariffs are far from being on the backburner, but Trump has backed down from his original hardened stance, the market now trading higher than it was at the time of the initial announcement.

One of the most salient facets in recent trading has been the sheer stubbornness of correction buying. Market players could barely wait before jumping in and buying any sign of weakness. Fear seems obsolete, concern nowhere to be found – even though a whole cadre of experts are warning that Trump has laid down the groundwork for an economic disaster.

Market players, on Friday, heaved a sigh of relief that the import tax drama and the trade war seemed to be behind us. That was coupled with the fact that diplomatic progress had been made with North Korea. That notwithstanding, players were caught entirely off-guard when the market soared against the backdrop of better than expected employment figures. February’s employment report pointed to 313 thousand more U.S. hires. In light of that, the NASDAQ soared 1.8% on Friday to a new historic high. The Dow Jones is traded just 5% beneath its all-time high after having surged 1.8% on Friday as well, up 3.3% on the week. And the S&P 500 is trading just 3% beneath its all-time high, up 3.5% on the week.

Not only were the job numbers better than expected but the big surprise was that one couldn’t discern any concern among market players about inflationary pressure. A number of Federal Reserve members had noted recently that the American economy is close to full employment – but the market paid little heed, its response being the diametric opposite of the bond market’s response.

A big part of the reason that stocks’ reaction didn’t jibe with the bond market’s movement is that the movement in the stock market prompted automatic, uninterrupted buying on the part of computerized algorithmic programs. When carefully assessing Friday’s intraday movement, you can clearly see the tracks of the computerized trading machine. You can barely see a red candle all day long! What we’ve been seeing is unidirectional upward movement, devoid of the typical lows and highs and the movement they bring in tow. In the last few minutes of trading, buying pressure even accelerated!

This coming week, the bull market will celebrate the 10th anniversary of the bottom recorded a generation ago. The S&P 500 is trading up a whopping 312% since the bottom recorded on March 9, 2009. With but a few earnings reports this week, investors will focus in this week’s trading on the economic figures, the most important among them being of course consumer inflation on Tuesday, followed up by producer inflation numbers on Wednesday. These figures are likely to provide a large measure of clarity about inflation before the coming Fed meeting on March 20-21st, when the Central Bank is expected to announce its rate hike.

On a technical level, at these areas, indexes will be going up against resistance levels. Indexes are a little bit tense after rebounding from the low produced in the wake of the import tax announced just a week ago – the 50-period EMA now going through the 2,740 point level on the S&P 500. At the same time, the market has proved that extreme buying levels can become more extreme, recent history hinting that movement of this ilk will continue. If in February volatility skyrocketed, last week it did the opposite and contracted – and once again, it felt like January all over again!

Index Last

Daily change

DJX 25,336 1.77% Up
SPX 2,787 1.74% Up
NASDAQ 7,561 1.79% Up


Have a great trading week!


Economic Calendar


DAY TIME (EST) Event Forecast Impact
Tuesday 6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 107.1 Medium
Tuesday 8:30 Consumer Price Index 0.2 % Medium
Wednesday 8:30 PPI-FD 0.2 % Medium
Wednesday 8:30 Retail Sales 0.4 % Medium
Wednesday 10:00 Business Inventories 0.5 % Medium
Wednesday 10:30 Oil Inventories 2.4 M barrels Low
Thursday 8:30 Jobless Claims 230 K Medium
Thursday 8:30 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 23.3 Medium
Thursday 8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey 14.6 Medium
Thursday 8:30 Import and Export Prices 0.3 %   / 0.3% Medium
Thursday 10:00 Housing Market Index 72 Medium
Friday Quadruple Witching
Friday 8:30 Housing Starts 1.284 M Medium
Friday 9:15 Industrial Production 0.3 % Medium
Friday 10:00 Consumer Sentiment 98.5 High
Friday 10:00 JOLTS 5.800 M Medium



Earning Calendar


Symbol Company AM/PM Day
QD Qudian Inc. AM Monday
WUBA Inc. AM Monday
GBT Global Blood Therapeutics Inc. PM Monday
COUP Coupa Software Incorporated PM Monday
DKS Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. AM Tuesday
GDS GDS Holdings Limited AM Tuesday
SIG Signet Jewelers Limited AM Wednesday
WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. PM Wednesday
YRD Yirendai Ltd. PM Wednesday
JUNO Juno Therapeutics, Inc. PM Wednesday
CTRP International, Ltd. PM Wednesday
BITA Bitauto Holdings Limited AM Thursday
DG Dollar General Corporation AM Thursday
JBL Jabil Inc. PM Thursday
ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. PM Thursday
AVGO Broadcom Limited PM Thursday
TIF Tiffany & Co. AM Friday


Today’s Picks – Day Trading!

Symbol Breakout Breakdown Momentum Momentum
TAL $39.28    
CSCO $45.89    
CBG $47.81    
CPRT $50.71    
BBT $56.15    
DISH $40.22    


New York Strategy Swing

# Date Stock Long\


Status Data Close Profit\


1 3.1.2018 VOYA Long Close 8.1.2017 +0.67%
2 4.1.2018 TER Long Close 10.1.2017 +0.45%
3 9.1.2018 SCG Long Close 10.1.2017 -3.35%
4 11.1.2018 CREE Long Close 16.1.2018 +1.84%
5 11.1.2018 CF Long Close 16.1.2018 +1.66%
6 18.1.2018 MARK Long Close 22.1.2018 -0.67%
7 1.2.2018 SM Long Close 2.2.2018 -1.06%
8 14.2.2018 HOLX Short Close 15.2.2018 -2.7%
9 26.2.2018 FOSL Long Close   -1.47%
10 28.2.2018 APA Short Close   -0.87%
11 5.3.2018 AKAM Long Open   +5.30%
12 5.3.2018 FOX Long Open   +2.40%


Today’s Picks – Swing “New-York Strategy”

No.1 –   TAL    

Company Name TAL Education Group
Entry Point 39.28
Stop Area 37.29
1st Target 40.30
Swing Target
Avg. Volume 5.69M
Sector Services | Rental & Leasing Services
Earning Date
Risk Rate High
Risk\Reward Ratio


No.2 – CBG

Company Name CBRE Group
Entry Point 47.81
Stop Area 46.96
1st Target 48.30
Swing Target
Avg. Volume 2.20M
Sector Financial | Property Management
Earning Date
Risk Rate Normal
Risk\Reward Ratio 2.36:1

Risk Rates: Normal – Regular size, High –Consider reducing size, Low – Consider increasing size