Why 2018 Could be Another Record Year…

Picks of the Day January 9, 2018.

Why 2018 Could be Another Record Year…

The S&P 500 succeeded in extending its 2018 winning streak with another victory lap yesterday! The pace of the gains did slow to a crawl, health and banking stocks weighing on market movement, investors not waiting for the opening kickoff of the Q4 2017 earnings season which will open up this coming Friday with banks’ numbers.

Yesterday, the health sector recorded the worst performance on the S&P 500, and investors are hesitant to pour money into banking firms before they release their results at the end of the week.

Daily Summary: The Dow Jones shed 0.5% of its value. The S&P 500 tacked on 0.17%, the NASDAQ rising 0.29%.

The 3 large indexes on Wall Street kicked off 2018 with the strongest four initial trading days in a decade. For the Dow Jones, it was the strongest opening since 2003, for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, it was their strongest opening since 2006.

Historically, the first 5 trading days of the year are likely to serve as a good indicator of the direction of the entire trading year. According to Jeff Hirsch, the editor of the universally known book of statistics, The Stock Trader’s Almanac, that means that there’s an 83.7% chance that stocks will rise finish up on the year. That’s wonderful news for Wall Street, especially because historically stocks perform less well in years when mid-term congressional elections take place. Based on the above indicator, in the event the stock market rises in the first 5 trading days of the year, the chances rise that the stock market will end positively for the year. More than that, though, the “first 5 days indicator” also foreshadows significant gains on the S&P 500, i.e. yearly gains of 13.9% if the first 5 days of the year trade up, compared to average annual gains of 9.2% for the years 1950-2017.

One of the stocks that stood out in yesterday’s trading was Caterpillar (CAT), which rose 2.5% to the $166.03 level, slightly beneath the historic high it achieved during the trading day after J.P. Morgan raised its price target on the stock in light of tax reform. Trump’s bill is likely to help the infrastructure sector’s business cycle in North America in 2018.

Kohl’s (KSS) soared 4.7% after the department store chain reported stronger than expected sales in its stores over the holiday season, compared to its competitors.

GoPro (GPRO) continues to lose altitude. The stock tumbled 12.8% yesterday to a low, at the $6.56 level, after the company announced that it was open to be taking over but isn’t chasing buyout offers. At an earlier point in the day, the stock had already shed one-third of its value, dipping to $5.04, after reporting initial Q4 revenue results which came out significantly beneath the consensus; the company also announced that it had decided to exit the drone market.

On the S&P 500, 98 stocks rose to new 52-week highs, not a single stock dipping to a new yearly low; on the NASDAQ, 124 stocks recorded new 52-week highs, 26 falling to new yearly lows.

About 6.36 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, compared to the 6.28 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

Tuesday: The trading day is expected to remain relatively quiet in light of the fact that today’s economic diary will be meager. Before opening, the NFIB small business optimism index will be released. During trading, the JOLTS employment figures will be released. JOLTS numbers are the Fed’s preferred metric for assessing the employment state.

Investors are continuing to wait in anticipation for the earnings season which will reach a critical mass on Friday. That being the case, investors prefer to not become fully committed too early to any large positions.

The large, annual tech conference, the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), opened up yesterday in Las Vegas. During the conference, leading tech companies showcase their latest innovations. Tech stocks are likely to continue to respond in kind today, commanding investors’ attention.

IPOs: None

Hot Stocks: URBN, STX, SHLM

Today’s Picks – Day Trading!

New York Strategy Swing

Today’s Picks – Swing “New-York Strategy”

No.1 – CENX

No.2 – SCG